Yep This is a Photo of me With Craig Lord

Earlier in the week, I noticed that my favorite Chinese drug cheating/bodysuit obsessed writer was in the house here in Omaha. From that point on, I knew I had one mission- I had to meet Craig Lord.

My opportunity came tonight when I snuck into the media zone and found him alone banging away at his laptop. As far as I could tell his caps key was completely functional. I said "excuse me" and Craig whipped around. He gave me a broad smile and a firm handshake. He made sure to let me know that he enjoyed the back and forth, and in order to confirm the authenticity of that I asked him for this photo. Craig consented with some trepidation- I had to promise to be nice in this post.

Here's what else I learned in my brief chat with Craig:

1. He also wants to know just how big USA swimming wants this meet to be. 1800 is too big

2. He's really impressed by a domestic meet that can get 14,000 fans

3. He's part of a secret group of shadowy swimming power brokers that rule the sport with an invisible hand*

*possibly not true


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Shameless Promotion of Trials Features

So far I've lost 5 pounds covering the Olympic Trials. While that's more of a reflection of my pre-Trials shape rather than the physical demands of not-competing, there's still a lot of running around, late nights, coffee drinking, and interviews to gather. I'm now back in Brooklyn writing and working remotely, so I have some free time to share with anyone who cares what I've been doing in Omaha. Here are a few features I've written on the USASwimming.org website:

What Matt Grevers Learned. 

Claire Donahue Seizes Her Moment.

Replacing Third Place Tears.

Where Dreams Come True. 

I also write bad jokes on Twitter, in case you're interested in not laughing. My Twitter handle is @MikeLGustafson.

Finally, is anyone else already depressed that Trials will be over soon? I'm almost contemplating DVRing Trials and watching only three seconds every day just to prolong the event until the Olympics.... Or maybe I should just find this guy.

Resisting the Panic Button

(Note: Every Year I have multiple panic attacks about the chances of our men's 4x100 Relay Usually it resolves itself by this point. What follows is one man's struggle not to hit the panic button before tomorrows final)

Tonight I pictured Leigh Nugent, Australian National Team Coach, watching our men's 100 free prelims and semi's from a secret lair. With each swim he cackled with joy. Why shouldn't he? While Nathan Adrian improved significantly on the 49.0 that led prelims with his 48.3, Nugent appears to have not one but two hammers to bang on his US competitors in the 4x100.

Meanwhile, Yannick Agnel looked up from his twice daily wine and cheese party to stare down his nose at the results. He then ignored another text message from Alain Bernard asking "yo what you up to tonight*"

*however you say that in French

In Moscow, Vladimir Putin gathered the Russian squad and stared at them really intensely for nearly an hour, hoping to convey that they better win...or else.*

*they would be forced to run against him in the next election

Italy has no idea what happened because their internet was turned off earlier in the month for no reason in particular.

Finally, British sprinter Adam Brown burst in to tell his teammates the results and comment "I reckon we've got a shot now don't we?". And I laughed and felt better.






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Feel Like Gambling?

Consider for a moment two possible scenarios. In one, you are given a 40% chance to win a million dollars. In another, you receive a million up front, but then are forced into a 40% shot to lose it. On a gut level, the first scenario is more appealing even though your odds at a million are worse. It's a scenario that has a lot to do with the psychology of swimming.

Every swimmer has a tipping point where they are less excited about what they could possibly accomplish and more worried about losing what they've already accomplished. The most famous example at this meet is Michael Phelps, who four years ago sat on the biggest pile of swimming accomplishment ever won. Since then he's been mostly trying not to lose it rather than beat it. It took a lot of ambition to gamble for more than anyone had won before- everyone has their limits.

Yet this phenomenon takes place on all scales and isn't always so predictable. One could forgive Allison Schmitt for growing defensive since her breakout in 2008, and yet she seems more assertive than ever. Youth definitely helps- it is unlikely that the likes of Missy Franklin or Rachel Bootsma think they have anything to lose. Meanwhile, Natalie Coughlin was evidence that even a champion's track record and the best coach in the world aren't sure odds for an Olympic spot.

If you had no knowledge of swimmers and were simply picking a squad from the lineup, chances are you would choose the impossibly tall and athletic Matt Grevers. Somehow despite his advantage, Grevers has made his 2nd place finish and world best victory seem less than likely.

Perhaps no swimmer has written the "nothing to lose" narrative better than the yet to swim Dara Torres. She has more money to throw at professional stretchers than most coaches salaries and unmatched talent. She remains paradoxically an underdog, and it's hard to remember when she wasn't. Somehow, the years haven't made her any less willing to take irrational risks than competitors a generation younger. Just add it to the list of things she can teach them: how to gamble in the pool.



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To The Aggressor Goes The Spoils

With Dana Vollmer making the world's fastest time look routine, all eyes were on the second spot in the 100 fly. A quick poll of my seating section favored Claire Donahue. Still, we were frozen- could Donahue dispatch a grizzled veteran like Natalie Coughlin? In fact she could, swimming her own race. She went out with reckless abandon, overcame shaky timing on her turn and never looked back.

Conversely, a lack of aggression put Peter Vanderkaay out of the running for the 4x200 relay. In his place were swimmers like Davis Tarwater, who secured a spot in the final on the strength of a 51.93 front half.

The one swimmer tonight who could afford to swim from behind was Rebecca Soni. Despite a start and pullouts that are at best average for this level she more than makes up for it in sheer dominance on top of the water. Her stroke and tactics defy modeling- they work just finenfornher and your results may vary.

In the men's final, Kevin Cordes gambled with a 27.8 opener. While it didn't pay off in the form of a spot in London, he made his presence known in a field of veterans and reinforced that he may just be a year or two away from seizing the crown.

Allison Schmitt had the swim of the night, breathing life into one of the potentially "weak" events on Team USA with blistering first half. While the world record was never seriously in doubt (much like the longtime Evans standard, it was set on the back half), the race nevertheless electrified the crowd.

The night came in like a lion. While it didn't quite leave a lamb thanks to Bootsma and Franklin, it ended with the typical gamesmanship of semi final heats. Both back strokes await a final where the lessons of night two will be unavoidable.




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Finals Cheat Sheet: Omaha Night Two

In the last couple years my wife, Kate, has become more interested in swim meets. As with any sport, putting the competition in context helps. 4:07 in the 400 IM means nothing unless you know how fast it is. So before a big meet, I always make her a cheat sheet of what would be a good swim the swimmers on my team.

So, as a viewing aid for tonight's finals, I am going to do the same. For each final and semi I will give you an idea of what is good and what is not for the swimmers themselves and team USA.

Women's 100 fly: Dana Vollmer has put the world on notice. The lone carrot remaining for her is Sarah Sjostrom's 2009 world record of 56.06. She is already the Olympic favorite mainly due to Sjostrom's inconsistencies. The second place swimmer in this event will need a major step up to put themselves in contention in London: Claire Donahue for instance would need to drop .6 off the swim of her life to match Ellen Gandy's third in the world swim.

Men's 200 free: Lochte and Phelps are 1-2 favorites for London. Anything under 1:45 will be a good result as no domestic swimmer has shown they can challenge that. There is no real drama here- the rest of the field is already fast enough to complete a gold medal relay, its just a matter of who gets on the train.

Women's 100 br: Soni is still mostly competing with herself here and chasing the world record: which stands at 1:04.45. Larson drives the rest of this race, if she improves on her 1:06.5 she will put a lot of pressure on Hardy going into the final, especially with her early speed.

Mens 100 br: Hansen's 59.7 puts him at least in the conversation for a London medal. If he does more than dropping a tenth or two start the Kitajima-Hansen 3 discussion. Otherwise the minute barrier is the borderline for contention, a swim that would be phenomenal for all involved.

Women's 400 free: The top two swims are strong relative to recent US results in this event, which haven't been good. It's going to take all the way down to 4:03 for either to contend in London, a time that would be a huge textile drop for either.

Men's 100 back: Lots of questions to be answered here. Did Grevers go full bore on his 52.9? If he doesn't improve I say yes. The rest of the field swam within a normal range and needs to move up to Grevers level to be world relevant, a tall order for all but Thoman and Plummer.

Women's 100 back: Don't read into Coughlin's swims at all. She will not go close to 100% before the final. For the rest of the contenders 59 keeps them relevant and 58 separates from the world pack.



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Lighting The Torch: Omaha Night One

As he exited the pool, Tyler Clary gave a frustrated shrug to the crowd. He is the third fastest 400 IMer in the world but he won't compete for a medal. The greatest swimmer of all time decided to drop into his event and he didn't even win. That title went to Ryan Lochte, who dispatched Michael Phelps effortlessly, easing up dramatically at the finish and making a 4:07 look the easiest it has ever looked.

Where once Phelps used to be able to eliminate all his competition within the first half of the race, he now is at best even with Lochte without the breaststroke to contend.

But enough about them. There were better swims to be had. Dana Vollmer summarily broke the American record. Despite her slender frame, she looks like she is leveraging twice the strength of her competitors on every pull.

Elizabeth Beisel showed world best form in the 400 IM. Her swim stands in contrast to her meteoric rise four years ago. She swims with professional precision now. Beisel swam a middle of the pack fly, stormed past the field on backstroke, then held off a world class breaststroker in Leverenz on the third hundred. Unlike Lochte she raced hard throughout, although a closer race could likely take her to a higher level.

The rest was far less impressive. The top two times in the men's 400 free was slow enough that two Brits, or two Danes for that matter, could have locked the Americans out. Despite some breakout performances in the men's 100 breaststroke, that event also lags the world standard. Perhaps Hansen has more in the tank- we'll see tomorrow.



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