Fact or Fiction: World Beaters

As I covered in a Split Time with Garrett McCaffrey, now is the time of year that I get nervous for the US National Team. In the past, I've written a blog where I foolishly try to predict the who the breakout stars of the coming summer season will be. Today, I'll be taking a different wrinkle. I'm going to look at the swimmers who have shot up th World Rankings in recent months, look into my crystal ball, and tell you whether they are for real.
James Magnussen, 100 free: Look no further than the 100 free for a name that's pretty unfamiliar to your average swimming fan. The reason why is simple: Magnussen is only 19 years old. Last year Magnussen finished the year ranked 27th in the world with a 48.94 and now sits at #1 with a 48.29, only a few tenths back of last year's fastest time by Brent Hayden (47.98).

Fact or Fiction: Fiction. I only mean this in the sense that I believe Magnussen will not finish the year in his present position. His potential is phenomenal and he may well be there in the next couple years. Still, sprinting is dominated by swimmers in their mid 20s and there's good reason for it. Magnussen is great but not quite there yet.

Kylie Palmer, 200 Free: No country has more elite swimmers who seemingly shot up the rankings than Australia. Like Magnussen, Palmer is an outstanding talent who appears to be just coming into her own. She's been around for a while- she swam on Australia's gold medal 800 free relay in Beijing and even recorded the fastest split. Still, last year she swam just 1:57.50 to rank 13th, this year she's been 1:55.73.

Fact or Fiction: Fact. Of course, the easy prediction would be to say that none of these swimmers will maintain their position, but it wouldn't be any fun. Palmer is a big time talent, more mature than Magnussen and appears to be in the midst of a serious breakout. A year ago I would have predicted there was no chance of a newcomer knocking off Federica Pellegrini but Pellegrini looked slightly off in her 200 a few days ago.

Sun Yang, 200 Free: Its not a surprise for Sun Yang to be atop the world rankings in three other freestyle events: the 400, 800 and 1500 frees. It is a bit of a shocker to see China's most relevant male swimmer ever atop the world in the 200 free. Yang recorded a more than respectable 1:46.25 last year and blew past 1:45 on his way to a 1:44.99 earlier this month at Chinese Nationals. Just a year ago, it appeared that either Danila Izotov of Russia or Yannick Agnel of France was the heir apparent in this event. That's no longer so clear.

Fact or Fiction: Fiction. Conventional wisdom says that Chinese swimmers don't live up to the hype they generate at their own nationals. Of course, the same could be said for any number of countries. But this will not be what holds Yang back. I believe his intention (although loosely translated) to go after world records in the 400 and 1500 may well preclude him from swimming the 200 at all later this summer. I expect any number of swimmers to best 1:44.99 this summer as momentum for London 2012 starts to build.

Have a different opinion? Leave your expert commentary below and please remember to forget my predictions if they're wrong.