Monday, July 11, 2011

Nighttime Snack: Fearless Shanghai

I will drink the entire ocean just like Thor did for the Ice Kings!

After my first fearless Shanghai prediction was roundly mocked by a bunch of nerds with protractors (Braden Keith and David Reider), you might have thought I would call it quits. Well not only will I continue on but I will also continue to use dead horse nerd analogies that haven't made sense for roughly 25 years. I just don't care. Today's fearless prediction: Alexander Dale Oen is winning the 100 breast.

I have a few rules in life. One of them is that when you are Scandinavian, and you write for a swim blog with a guy who wears a viking helmet as his gimmick, you gotta go with the Norwegian if he's close to the top. So I'm going with Oen. It's actually not that fearless when you consider how good he is, except for the part where Dale Oen has never beaten Kitajima at a big meet. Kosuke, despite getting some stellar coaching out on the west coast, is usually a little more vulnerable in non-olympic years. But he was really fast last summer...crap! Am I doubting myself now? Quick, somebody distract me with Lutefisk! On second thought, never mind. Lutefisk is disgusting but I'm still going with Dale Oen. 
Posted by Chris DeSantis at 5:27 PM

18 comments:

  1. AnonymousJuly 11, 2011 at 5:49 PM

    Dale Oen just went a 59 with a goddamn beard.

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  2. The Screaming Viking!July 11, 2011 at 6:02 PM

    that's cause he eats stuff like Lutefisk. See DeSantis, you might have broke a minute in yards if you had just let the Scandinavian in you blossom like me and Dale Oen.

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  3. Chris DeSantisJuly 11, 2011 at 6:09 PM

    I am more of a smoked eel kind of guy. Never got into the ammonia flavor

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  4. Braden KeithJuly 11, 2011 at 6:34 PM

    You had me at lutefisk.

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  5. David RiederJuly 11, 2011 at 7:05 PM

    Maybe one day Chris DeSantis will spell my name right. Maybe... And actually I'm with you on this; I too am picking Dale Oen to beat Kitajima for the world title.

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  6. AnonymousJuly 11, 2011 at 8:05 PM

    I'm with you on this one Chris. Alex will do 0:58,97 in the final at worlds ;)

    He did 0:59,98 last night in the norwegian national champs final, no tapering yet, making him 3. in the world in 2011, but probably fastest untapered.

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  7. AnonymousJuly 11, 2011 at 8:30 PM

    Last year at this time he was going high 1:00s. I think he will be close to the record.

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  8. RókurJuly 12, 2011 at 1:17 AM

    Here is the video proof: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SWI_daqlVl0

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  9. Speed EnduranceJuly 12, 2011 at 3:18 AM

    I love the polite applause at the end of the race. Golf crowd.

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  10. David RiederJuly 12, 2011 at 7:40 AM

    You can consider the time second in the world. Yuta Suenaga retired after Japanese Short Course Nationals in February, and I don't know if he even swam those long course times listed on the world rankings.

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  11. AnonymousJuly 12, 2011 at 7:50 AM

    If we're assuming the Suenaga times are BS, then that still leaves only 5 under 1:00 - Sloudnov, Kitajima, Hansen, Dale Oen, and Tateishi, Tateishi being the only one to do it since the return to textile suits. In the women's 100 backstroke, on the other hand, I think there were only 3 or so (Coughlin, Manadou, Coventry? correct me if I'm wrong) under before the suits, and since returning there are now something like 15. Just an interesting observation.

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  12. Chris DeSantisJuly 12, 2011 at 7:53 AM

    Anon,

    Where were you last summer? Both Kitajima and Dale Oen have been under 1:00 with the new rules.

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  13. AnonymousJuly 12, 2011 at 7:57 AM

    No, sorry, I mean they both did it before the suits, but since we went back the only one to break through for a best was Tateishi.

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  14. Chris DeSantisJuly 12, 2011 at 8:01 AM

    It is quite possible that no stroke was effected more than breaststroke. Breaststroke is the most power stroke. Unfortunately, if you get too powerful you will sink. But having some lift in the suit allowed a lot of the power guys that struggle to maintain a good body position for 100m to stay up there.

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  15. AnonymousJuly 12, 2011 at 8:14 AM

    So who goes under in Shanghai? hopefully Rickard, it's kind of embarassing if he can't get within a second and a half of his WR and medal.

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  16. The Screaming Viking!July 12, 2011 at 8:42 AM

    the back/breast thing might be more of a male female suit thing. the women's suits still offer tremendous compression compared to pre-2008 suits. men scaled back to just jammers (with compression of the thighs still making a difference compared to old suits, but still between men and women's suits it is a big difference.) the women did not take quite as big a step back in technology as they got to keep compression over the core. that's my two cents.
    i also agree though that breaststroke in tech was it's own scientific phenomenon.

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  17. AnonymousJuly 12, 2011 at 8:42 AM

    Alex wins it (sub 59), and Kosuke is the only other guy to go under 60 sec.

    That's my prediction ;)

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  18. Braden KeithJuly 12, 2011 at 9:03 AM

    This is not nearly as out there as your last Fearless Pick. I kind of like this one. Haven't decided who I will pick, but no heartburn here. And I know that the Swim DR has been singin Dale Oen's praises for some time now.

    I hope Rickard gets back under. He was a bit of a heart-breaker last year.

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